When you ask rival coaches and other figures about Guardiola, one view is still widespread – and usually stated emphatically: “He is a genius.”
Whether they actually like him as a person tends to elicit more layered responses, though that is largely beside the point here.
For a manager so many still describe as “the best in the world,” this week serves as a reminder of an old flaw that may well be his greatest.
The return of just three Champions League titles in 17 seasons is underwhelming, given all the advantages Guardiola has enjoyed. Yes, three used to match Bob Paisley’s historic record, but the game has changed. This has not been a case of a coach merely overseeing sides adapting to European football or riding the rise and fall of leagues, as Sir Alex Ferguson or Arsene Wenger did over the years.
Guardiola twice managed teams considered the best in the world at Barcelona and Bayern Munich, and it should never be forgotten that he completely reinvigorated the Catalan giants. He began winning at the top immediately and stayed there. At Manchester City, he has been indulged more than any manager in football history – genuinely no exaggeration. No other manager has ever had a project so meticulously curated around them, backed by the resources of Abu Dhabi and its state wealth.
He certainly maximised that in the Premier League. In the Champions League, however, Guardiola should have achieved much more – especially in recent seasons. He has been knocked out by Real Madrid before the semi-finals, and twice before the quarter-finals, across three successive campaigns.
How it must gnaw at him that Barcelona’s great rivals continue to reel off Champions League titles, while everyone else – not least himself – endures long, anxious nights.
It is likely all the more painful because those who know him say he is obsessed with records and milestones, even if he rarely speaks publicly about it. The sense is that he would dearly love to match Carlo Ancelotti’s five Champions League trophies.
That is natural – all footballing greats have egos and are intensely competitive. The difference with Guardiola is the sheer number of opportunities he has had.
All of which brings us to Sunday, the Carabao Cup, and the chance for something else…
It may be regarded as lesser silverware, but there is at least a possibility this could be Guardiola’s final major trophy at City.
None of this is to write off the Catalan great, of course. As noted in recent newsletters, speculation around his future is swirling – although City insist it is just that.
Some sources are trying to read all kinds of signals from Guardiola’s behaviour, noting that his mood after the Madrid elimination did not seem as haunted as in previous seasons. Perhaps he has grown accustomed, which says something in itself. There is talk that he may take a mini-break to decide his future, with the outcome of the Carabao Cup final potentially shaping that decision.
The narrative is deepened by the fact he faces a former assistant in Arteta, who could ultimately supplant his mentor. Guardiola generally maintains good relationships with his disciples, and he and Arteta still talk by phone frequently.
This might sound odd given that they are in direct competition, with significant animosity between the clubs, but they clearly know each other well and can empathise with each other’s perspective.
It certainly is no longer a case of senior coach and junior coach. As one rival laughs, “Guardiola is very different when you start to beat him.”
The vast number of Guardiola disciples at the top level forms another argument for his unique greatness, distinguishing him from peers such as Ferguson, Wenger, and even Jose Mourinho. Unlike them, Guardiola has created one of the most influential football ideologies ever seen. It has spread globally and come to dominate the game, shaping the way a generation of players perform.
The only remaining question is why that ideology has not allowed him to dominate the Champions League in the way that seemed likely in his early Barcelona years. Guardiola should arguably have five or six titles, even allowing for the unpredictability of knockout football.
We need not retread all the old arguments for why this is so – they were loudest before he finally reclaimed the Champions League with City in 2023, his third overall.
His own neuroticism, overthinking, and tendency to second-guess himself have sometimes undermined his first quality: if his team simply played naturally, they would more often win.
Perhaps more interesting is how these old issues resurface the further he drifts from that 2023 victory, as if the Champions League complex hardens anew. How else to explain his approach against Real Madrid, particularly in the first leg?
One rival coach summarised it privately, recalling a match where his side eliminated Guardiola: “When the manager’s staff received the team sheet before the game, they were genuinely stunned by Guardiola’s formation. That required a quick reshuffle of our own tactics, but it was easy relative to taking on a Guardiola team. The feeling was that he had somehow diminished his immense chances of victory.”
One of the great questions now is whether Guardiola remains as sharp as he was over the past 17 years.
Observers note his new willingness to speak on current affairs and geopolitical issues – not that this is criticised – and the trips he is taking, such as back to Barcelona for a charity event where he spoke on Palestine, or to Brescia for a game. Does this suggest he is starting to consider life after City?
Or is Guardiola about to remind us all why we call him a “genius,” the man expected to win six Champions League titles?
Might he show Arteta what it really takes to win silverware, just as Arsenal are so close, with this final potentially influencing the title race? Might City surge home, free of midweek distractions? Reports from the dressing room suggest the performance against Madrid was closer to the level they wanted – it could easily have gone another way.
Or does it reveal the thin line City constantly tread, always playing on the edge? The pursuit of four trophies could quickly become two, particularly after Guardiola has missed out on the one he covets most.
That has previously caused deflation. How he and his team respond this time will reveal much.
