Inside Arsenal’s title-race reset as tension in the run-in builds

After a brief pause for relaxation – with Manchester City and Arsenal taking very different approaches – the season now reaches a key moment when everything escalates. How teams prepare for it could make all the difference. Also in today’s members-only newsletter:

Even in rare moments of relaxation, thoughts couldn’t help but turn to the “other lot”. Pep Guardiola was away on Sunday, enjoying a surprise trip to his old club, Serie C side Brescia, but was, of course, made aware of what was happening with Arsenal.

Then, no sooner had Mikel Arteta enjoyed the relief and euphoria of that victory over Spurs than the Basque was asked whether he would be following the Manchester City manager’s suggestion in what was a very rare midweek without a match.

Guardiola had joked after their 2-1 win over Newcastle United that he wanted his squad to “take a lot of caipirinhas, daiquiris” during their three days off.

It’s hard not to wonder whether that was pointed, given that a commonplace comment on Arsenal after the 2-2 draw at Wolves – said with some degree of seriousness by pretty senior football people – was that the squad actually needed a good old-fashioned “night on the lash”. That was because they looked like they needed the release, as well as the different kind of team bonding that comes with such an admittedly anti-sports-science pursuit.

Like the City squad and most modern players, though, very few Arsenal players actually touch alcohol in any way. That’s just not the game in 2026. Far more are quite religious and keen to read the Bible.

To Arteta’s credit, he is understood to have handled the fall-out from Wolves well. Seeing that the squad was down – to the point that there were arguments between some of the players – he again sought to point to the positives, to turn the thinking around. Arteta reminded them that, at any moment in the last few years – or even in their dreams as youngsters – they would have loved a position like this: five points clear in February.

And, as after the defeat to Manchester United, it worked. By the north London derby, they were focused and intent on making up for Wolves.

The subsequent wins from both of the top two, as well as the rare lull that followed, were probably narratively fitting for the wider story of the title race.

Because, from next week, it all gets very real. The race becomes the run-in. The two already have tough fixtures this weekend – with City travelling to Leeds United on Saturday before Arsenal host Chelsea – in what now looks like suitable stage-setting for another very rare occurrence on Wednesday: both teams play at the same time, with Arsenal going to Brighton and City hosting a durable Nottingham Forest. That’s certainly going to create quite an old-fashioned dynamic, and a proper back-and-forth on the night.

After that, it’s down to single digits in terms of games left, and that unique dyad that develops in a title race, where the actions of one team cannot but affect the other.

Such a dynamic may even be amplified to extreme levels by the potential of Arsenal and City meeting in all competitions in the last three months: one grand series for everything; an almost unsustainable level of tension.

That very prospect may well prove too much even for the Premier League’s famous sense of narrative, given some of the signs already coming out of both clubs over the past few weeks…

On Sunday, for Arsenal’s part, they didn’t just respond to City but also to themselves. Still frustrated by the way they had let a game get away from them against Wolves, they ensured there would be no hesitation or lingering doubt against Spurs. A similar gameplan was followed, but this time with full intensity.

Since Igor Tudor’s team played man for man, just like Wolves, Arsenal’s attackers were instructed to “take them for a walk” to create crucial space in the centre.

You could see it with the way Leandro Trossard and Bukayo Saka kept coming inside. From there, Arsenal wreaked havoc on Spurs.

If a frustration may still linger that they didn’t do something similar to a notionally weaker side in Wolves – and that those two points could end up very costly – others see an earlier game as more relevant.

There is a belief, certainly on the City side, that their late 2-1 win over Liverpool may have had a significant influence on the title race – at least for this stage of the chase. The day before, after all, Arsenal had looked close to uncatchable. They had just dismissed Sunderland 3-0, and it’s fair to say that there was widespread expectation that a resurgent Liverpool would do something against City.

If that had happened, as looked very likely after Dominik Szoboszlai’s free-kick, Arsenal would have been tantalisingly close. They suddenly would have been one or two games from looking out of reach, in the way Liverpool themselves were last season. Guardiola’s players themselves thought that was going to be it.

Except City didn’t just win. They won in a manner that brought positive emotional momentum rushing back through the squad.

It was transformative – at least temporarily.

Some outside Arsenal felt that it had a significant effect in ensuring they never got to top gear against either Brentford or Wolves, allowing City to further cut that gap. Football insiders point to how it’s a similar dynamic to how an elite team goes 1-0 up in first gear, only to find themselves pulled back, and then unable to get out of it.

The wider point is the push and pull, the way these games aren’t stand-alone.

Hence Arteta has been keen to tell his players that they can’t keep seeing every match as title or bust; they just have to concentrate on the now. Otherwise, you work yourself into a frenzy.

That’s also where “title experience” is seen as so important. It gives you the assurance that you can get through any moment, because you’ve done it before.

Better yet if it’s the manager. When Blackburn Rovers were going for the Premier League in 1994-95, and their increasingly anxious players were frequently getting asked if they were “nervous”, Kenny Dalglish told them to embrace it: “Say of course you’re nervous but that’s a good thing, because there are a lot of other teams nowhere near our position who’d love to be asked if they’re nervous.” Dalglish had won several titles as a player and manager, after all, and knew how to live with all this – and that it was better to be involved than not. Arteta has re-iterated a similar message to Arsenal.

They still don’t have the know-how that Guardiola does, even if he spoke last week of how “70 per cent of the players have never been in that situation”. There has been that much change at City.

It’s partly because of that that some in the Arsenal dressing room have been agitated by how they feel there is constant pundit focus on their issues, but not on their rivals. Nobody was criticising Guardiola for over-celebrating after Newcastle.

The obvious answer to that is Guardiola has the ultimate response of having proven he can do it before. Repeatedly.

Experience isn’t a complete guarantee, mind. You only have to look at City’s first Premier League title, in 2011-12. They were up against the only man who knows how to win the Premier League more than Guardiola, Sir Alex Ferguson, and yet it was Manchester United that blew an eight-point lead.

By the same token, for all the inevitable and intense focus on every individual game, the last week – and last month – only prove how the feelings of one match can be totally wiped out by the next. The lesson is that, in a tight title race, and especially one in a season where more points are going to be dropped, things are going to oscillate wildly.

It is exactly why the cliché is constantly to concentrate on the next game. The players may need to start saying it to themselves again.

Get in touch

Who do you think will win the title this season? Email me at m.delaney@independent.co.uk with your thoughts.

Since the Champions League last 16 again went into an old-fashioned knock-out from 2003-04, there have been seven countries who have only had one team reach the stage. Norway are one, with Bodo/Glimt, since Rosenborg’s entry into the last 16 came before that. Name the other six, both the countries and their clubs.

Note: the same club could have reached the stage on multiple occasions. They don’t need to have just qualified once.

Some good news for Spurs, amid so much difficulty

Igor Tudor does feel the Tottenham Hotspur squad can fit his formation, although they badly need to work on the left side.

A wonder, however, is whether opposition will note the same issues with the man-to-man marking that Arsenal did. At the least, they do have captain Cristian Romero and Mohammed Kudus to come back soon.

The Arctic fairytale continues... thanks to some heat

Much has been made of how Bodo/Glimt claim such an advantage from playing in the Arctic Circle, and that obviously affected Inter Milan in their first leg, but there’s still the wider factor of how the Norwegian side were even able to stay fresh amid their close season. They went to the sun: a series of training camps in Spain kept them fit. It’s a touch of irony amid so many improbabilities. It is not an exaggeration to say this might be the greatest Champions League surprise of all time, up there with Porto’s victory in 2003-04, precisely because of the way the modern game has evolved. Those at the top of European football were delighted, because they know the competition needs it.

Violence casts a shadow on World Cup preparations

Amid all the shocking scenes in Mexico this week, one element remains quite stark in a purely footballing sense. This is the first time in modern World Cup history that there has been violence of this nature – narco or paramilitary – in a host city a mere four months before the tournament. That alone provokes many questions.

FIFA were playing down concerns earlier in the week, with Gianni Infantino eventually insisting they have full faith in the Mexican government and won’t be moving anything – including the March play-offs in Guadalajara. Some sources close to the top say they have had serious concerns about potential violence around the city for some time. The prospect of moving games for the actual tournament is genuinely seen as an absolute last resort, amid hope that the situation calms. There may be a considerable irony in that, since many outside the organisation suspect it would very much suit FIFA to move more games to the United States. That could bring a host of political, legal and cost issues.

Ask Miguel

Is it relevant that Nottingham Forest and Tottenham Hotspur changed manager/head coach with only 11/12 games to go, while West Ham United changed much earlier and are in the better form of the three? Igor Tudor and Vitor Pereira are going to have to hit the ground running and work with what they have, yet Nuno has had time and a transfer window. David

Hey David, thanks for the question. I think there is absolutely something in this – albeit with a few caveats. Forest and Spurs might, of course, say they had to change because things were declining and there was no sign of improvement. Even that, however, comes down to judgment of when to change. Would Spurs really be in this position if they’d switched in November, as the fans wanted? I’d say no.

On the other side, though, that doesn’t mean a manager always deserves time – especially if relegation is a real risk. Would Ange Postecoglou really have been able to get this squad in tune in time, given the disconnect between his ideology and the profile of the Forest squad? But that also comes down to judgment there, too. If there’s such a disconnect, don’t appoint them.

So, while this isn’t exactly a complete answer, there are still a lot of caveats to consider!

Want to ask a question?

Email me at m.delaney@independent.co.uk for a chance to be featured. 

A busy week, showing different sides of the game. On Tuesday, Mick McCarthy did a charity talk with the very worthy Irish children’s charity Barretstown – which offers camps and support to children enduring illnesses. I agreed to ask the questions, and Mick was on sparkling form, a great laugh for a great cause. Perhaps the stand-out – among a few anecdotes where the language can’t be repeated! – was how conscious he is of the “it can!” meme. “Fame at last,” as he put it.

On Thursday, I attended the Financial Times Business of Football Summit. The event is brilliantly organised by the newspaper and of great value, but a theme was very much those that want to take money out of football rather than the sport necessarily socially contributing. You’ll have seen some of the headlines.

Last week brought five correct outcomes and one correct scoreline, leaving us at 114 correct results out of 271, and 150 points out of 813 when factoring in exact scorelines.

My predictions for Premier League gameweek 28:

Wolves 1-1 Aston Villa

Bournemouth 2-0 Sunderland

Liverpool 1-0 West Ham United

Newcastle United 1-1 Everton

Burnley 2-2 Brentford

Leeds United 1-1 Manchester City

Brighton 0-0 Nottingham Forest

Fulham 2-1 Tottenham Hotspur

Manchester United 2-0 Crystal Palace

Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea

I know many of you play along so let me know how your points are stacking up via email. A shout-out to Tim Bak and his friends Jack, Colin and Tim – who are playing along and all beating me!

Ukraine, Shakhtar Donetsk
Switzerland, Basel
Cyprus, APOEL
Czech Republic, Sparta Prague
Austria, RB Salzburg
Denmark, Copenhagen

Drop me an email and let me know how you did. Thanks for reading – and see you on Monday!